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The Multiverse According to Ben
This blog post is an edited version of a comment I made on Robin Hanson’s recent China Ascendant post on the Overcoming Bias blog. So, read Robin’s post before reading this one!

Also, it is best read as a sort of post-script to my recent article on the Chinese Singularity in H+ Magazine. So maybe you should read that article first too

Ultimately, it may not be so important whether the US or China or India or Europe leads the advance of science and technology during the next decades.

Certainly, if you’re a Singularitarian like me — the Singularity is about the fate of mind and humanity, not the fate of nations … and if/when it comes, it will quickly bring us beyond the state where national boundaries are a big deal.

But in current practical terms, the “where” question is an interesting one…. Especially, if a lot of the relevant developments are going to happen outside the Western world, this is worth knowing because it’s going to affect a lot of decisions people have to make.

So, to get to the topic of Robin Hanson’s blog post: China ascendant ???

My answer to that question is always: Maybe.

In his post, Robin makes the statement:

If China continues to outgrow the West, it will likely be because they do a few things very right, as did the West before.

The point I want to make here is a simple one: One of the things China is doing much better than the US, these days, is thinking medium-term and long-term rather than just short-term.

Perhaps long-range planning will be one of the “few things” China does “very right,” to use Robin’s language.

China is planning decades ahead, in their technology and science development, in their energy and financial policies, and many other areas as well.

Whereas in the …






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